2026 World Cup Group G Preview: Belgium's Golden Encore Meets Salah's Last Stand

Group G is the kind of draw that looks comfortable on paper and feels treacherous on the grass. Belgium, ranked ninth in the world and priced at 3% to lift the trophy, are the obvious seeds, but they have been here before and learned the hard way that a strong squad guarantees nothing once the knockouts loom. Behind them sit two sides with genuine pedigree and elite individuals: Egypt, 29th in the FIFA rankings and led by the irrepressible Mohamed Salah, and Iran, 21st and as stubbornly well-drilled as ever under Amir Ghalenoei. New Zealand, 85th and the lowest-ranked team in the group, complete the quartet.

What makes this group compelling is the gap between reputation and ranking. Belgium's title odds dwarf those of their rivals, yet the football is rarely settled by bookmakers. Egypt at 0.6% and Iran at 0.5% are not expected to win the tournament, but neither needs to in order to wreck Belgium's group. A single set-piece, a moment from Salah or Mehdi Taremi, and the entire complexion of the table shifts.

For a competition staged across Canada, Mexico and the United States, with the heat and travel that entails, Group G also rewards the side that manages its squad best. Belgium have the depth; Egypt and Iran have the cohesion. New Zealand have a puncher's hope and a striker who knows where the goal is. Over three matchdays, that combination promises drama.

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Belgium: a new-look golden generation, with old reliables

Rudi Garcia inherits a Belgium side that is no longer the swaggering favourite of 2018 but remains stacked with quality. At its heart is Kevin De Bruyne, now orchestrating from an advanced midfield role at Napoli, still the single most influential creator in the group. His ability to unlock a low block, exactly what Iran and Egypt are likely to deploy, could be the difference between a routine win and a frustrating stalemate.

Around De Bruyne, Belgium have evolved. Jérémy Doku gives them a direct, unpredictable threat from the left wing, the sort of one-on-one menace that stretches defences and manufactures space for others. Up front, Romelu Lukaku has reunited with De Bruyne at Napoli, and that club understanding should translate to the national side: Lukaku thrives on the early, incisive ball into the channels that De Bruyne supplies better than anyone.

Garcia's task is balance. Belgium's attacking talent is not in question, but their ninth-place ranking flatters a defence that has been picked apart in recent tournaments. If the back line holds and De Bruyne stays fit, Belgium should top the group comfortably. If either wobbles, the margin between first and a nervy scramble for second is thinner than the odds suggest.

At 3% to win the World Cup outright, Belgium are mid-tier contenders rather than overwhelming favourites, but in this group they are a class apart on paper, and they will expect nine points or close to it.

Egypt and Iran: the challengers with elite edges

If Belgium are the seeds, Egypt and Iran are the sides most likely to drag them into trouble. Egypt, 29th in the rankings, are built around Mohamed Salah, and a tournament on this stage may be the final grand act of his international career. A right winger of his calibre, capable of deciding a knockout tie single-handedly, means Egypt are never out of any match. Hossam Hassan can also call on Omar Marmoush, whose pace and finishing at Manchester City give Egypt a genuine second scoring outlet, with the experienced Mohamed Elneny anchoring midfield.

Iran, 21st and the higher-ranked of the two challengers, are the more streetwise outfit. Ghalenoei's side combine defensive discipline with a strike pairing that would walk into most teams here: Mehdi Taremi, sharpened by his football at Inter, and Sardar Azmoun, a proven international scorer. Add Alireza Jahanbakhsh's experience on the right and Iran have the profile of a team that frustrates opponents for 80 minutes and strikes once. They are perennially underestimated and rarely easy to beat.

The head-to-head between Egypt and Iran may well decide who joins Belgium in the round of 32, and even the loser of that exchange could sneak through as one of the four best third-placed teams across the twelve groups. Both have the individual quality to take points off Belgium; both have the defensive nous to grind out the narrow wins that group qualification often demands.

New Zealand: the dark horse with a Premier League spearhead

New Zealand are the group's clear outsiders, 85th in the world and priced at just 0.1% to win the tournament, but Darren Bazeley's side are not without weapons. The most obvious is Chris Wood, whose form at Nottingham Forest has reminded everyone that he is a Premier League-proven centre-forward. Give Wood service and he will convert; the question is whether New Zealand can manufacture enough of it against organised opposition.

The supporting cast offers reasons for cautious optimism. Marko Stamenić brings Champions League-level midfield experience from Olympiacos, while Liberato Cacace provides quality and overlapping threat from left-back at Empoli. That is a spine with European pedigree, even if the squad as a whole lacks the depth of their group rivals.

Realistically, New Zealand's ceiling is a result that reshapes the group, a draw against Egypt or Iran, or a smash-and-grab on the back of a Wood header, that throws the qualification maths into chaos. They are unlikely to advance, but as an X-factor capable of ruining someone else's tournament, they are more dangerous than their ranking implies. Underestimate Wood at your peril.

Prediction: Belgium to top it, with a scrap for second

The smart read on Group G is that Belgium win it. Their squad depth, De Bruyne's creativity and Lukaku's finishing should be enough to navigate three games and finish first, even if a low block or two makes the football less than fluent. At ninth in the world and 3% for the title, anything less than top spot would count as a disappointment.

Second place is where the intrigue lies. Iran's defensive solidity and the Taremi-Azmoun axis give them a slight edge in temperament, but Egypt have the single best player in the group in Salah, and one moment from him can settle a tight match. My call is for Iran to edge second on the strength of their organisation, with Egypt pushed into third, and very much alive in the race for one of the four best third-placed berths.

New Zealand, for all Chris Wood's threat, are likeliest to finish bottom, though a single result against the right opponent could still leave a mark. Predicted top two: Belgium first, Iran second, with Egypt the dangerous third party who may yet survive on points. In a group this finely balanced, though, no one should be booking knockout flights early.