2026 World Cup Group L Preview: Tuchel's England Headline, but Croatia Refuse to Fade

Group L pairs a perennial favourite with one of tournament football's most stubborn over-achievers. England, ranked fourth and priced at 10% to win the World Cup, are the clear seeds, now under the management of Thomas Tuchel and carrying the familiar burden of a golden generation expected to finally deliver. They are the strongest single side in this section by some distance, but the group around them is anything but a formality.

Croatia, 11th in the world and 2% to win the tournament, remain the great survivors of the international game. With Luka Modrić still orchestrating in midfield, Zlatko Dalić's side have a habit of outlasting flashier opponents, and they represent the most credible threat to England's grip on top spot. The pedigree and tournament nous here are not to be underestimated.

Below them, Ghana (74th) bring Premier League pace and power despite their lowly ranking, while Panama (33rd) are organised, physical and well-coached under Thomas Christiansen. With the four best third-placed teams advancing to the round of 32, both outsiders have a tangible route through, making this a group where every point matters from the first whistle.

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England: favourites under new management

England top Group L on every measure: a FIFA ranking of fourth and trophy odds of 10%, the strongest in the group and among the best in the entire tournament. Tuchel inherits a squad bursting with attacking talent and the kind of resources most nations can only envy, and the expectation is that England not only win this group but go deep into the knockouts.

The spine is formidable. Jude Bellingham of Real Madrid has matured into a midfield force capable of dominating matches with his drive and goal threat from deep. Harry Kane of Bayern Munich remains a world-class centre-forward and captain, a guaranteed source of goals and the team's reference point in attack. And Bukayo Saka of Arsenal provides the width, directness and end product to stretch defences that try to sit deep against them.

Tuchel's task is to fuse that talent into a balanced, resilient whole, historically England's stumbling block at major tournaments. The German's tactical pedigree and big-match experience are precisely why the FA turned to him. If he gets the structure right, England have the individual quality to win Group L comfortably and announce themselves as serious contenders. The pressure, as ever, will be in converting that potential when the margins tighten.

Croatia: the survivors who keep coming back

Croatia are the side best equipped to spoil England's plans. Ranked 11th and matching Colombia's 2% trophy odds as the second-strongest in their group, Dalić's team have built a modern reputation on defying expectation and grinding out results when it matters most. Writing them off has burned plenty of better-fancied opponents before.

At the heart of it, remarkably, is still Luka Modrić. Now at AC Milan and deep into a glittering career, his game intelligence, passing and ability to control tempo remain central to how Croatia play. He is supported by genuine top-level quality: Joško Gvardiol of Manchester City offers pace and composure at the back, while Mateo Kovačić, also of Manchester City, gives the midfield the legs and ball-retention that allow Modrić to conduct.

The concern for Croatia is the same as it has been for several cycles, an ageing core and questions over whether they can sustain intensity across a long tournament. But their organisation, experience and refusal to be beaten make them a serious threat to finish top, and overwhelming favourites to claim at least second. England will know that the fixture against Croatia is the one most likely to define the group's order.

Ghana and Panama: the dark horses

Ghana are the group's intriguing wildcard. Their FIFA ranking of 74th is the lowest of any side in Groups J, K or L, yet it badly undersells the talent at Otto Addo's disposal, reflected in trophy odds of 0.4%, stronger than several higher-ranked nations elsewhere. Mohammed Kudus of Tottenham is a genuine match-winner, capable of producing moments of individual brilliance, while Thomas Partey of Villarreal brings Premier League-honed control at the base of midfield and Antoine Semenyo of Bournemouth offers pace and a direct goal threat. On their day, Ghana can trouble anyone in this group.

Panama, ranked 33rd, are the more pragmatic outsider but arguably the better organised. Christiansen has forged a side that is disciplined, physical and difficult to break down, with Adalberto Carrasquilla of Houston Dynamo dictating in midfield, José Fajardo of Independiente leading the line and Michael Murillo of Marseille providing quality and European experience from right-back. Their 0.2% odds reflect outsider status, but their structure makes them a stubborn opponent for any of the front two.

The X-factor here is the contrast in styles. Ghana's threat is explosive and individual; Panama's is collective and resilient. Both will see the expanded knockout format as their lifeline, a hard-fought draw against England or Croatia, combined with a win over each other, could be enough to chase one of the four best third-placed berths. Neither side intends to make up the numbers.

Prediction: how Group L finishes

England are the clear pick for top spot. Fourth in the world, 10% to win the tournament and armed with Bellingham, Kane and Saka, Tuchel's side have a quality advantage over the rest of Group L that should translate into first place provided the new manager strikes the right balance. Anything less than topping this group would count as a disappointment.

Croatia are backed for second. Their experience, organisation and the enduring influence of Modrić make them the most reliable of the chasers, and their 2% trophy odds mark them out as a cut above the outsiders. Dalić's men have the nous to manage the group, take care of Ghana and Panama, and arrive in the knockouts as a side nobody wants to face, even if questions over their stamina linger.

Third place looks like a straight shootout between Ghana and Panama. Ghana carry the higher ceiling through Kudus, Partey and Semenyo, and despite their modest ranking their odds suggest the bookmakers respect that talent; Panama counter with superior organisation and discipline. The bet here is that Ghana's match-winners edge it and put them in contention for one of the four best third-placed spots, but in a group this competitive, a single result could flip the order.